Confluence Signal
A confluence signal occurs when two or more independent data sources point in the same direction at the same time. On Form55, a confluence signal specifically means insider buying and active federal lobbying for the same company within the same 90-day window.
Investors and analysts look for "confluence" — agreement between unrelated sources of information — because any single data source is noisy. If insider buying and a separate, independent signal both point the same way at the same time, the odds that it's a coincidence go down.
On Form55, a confluence signal means a company has both insider open-market buying (from SEDI) and an active federal lobbying registration (from the Office of the Commissioner of Lobbying) within the same rolling 90-day window. These companies are flagged with a Confluence badge on the signal leaderboard.
In Form55's backtests, confluence signals have shown roughly a 60% positive hit rate over the following 90 days, compared with about 52% for insider-only signals — though the median return (around +3.5%) is similar. In other words, confluence is a consistency filter that produces fewer false positives, not a way to find the single biggest winners.
See the Methodology page for the full confluence bonus weighting and backtest breakdown.