Live Track Record

Headline figures above are computed only from closed signals (90-day holding period complete) — live signals never contribute to averages until their window closes. Every build of this page runs a fixed set of acceptance checks (return reconciliation, firewall separation of live vs. closed, weighting-scheme consistency) which all passed as of 2026-06-14.

The same 316 closed signals, scored four ways. Tradable (entry price ≥ $1.00) is the headline scheme used above. Value-weight sizes each signal by entry price as a liquidity proxy — its mean alpha (+0.8%) is 4.2pp lower than equal-weight, indicating the edge is concentrated in smaller, less liquid names.

How much each sector contributes to the overall +5.0pp equal-weight mean alpha (sorted by magnitude of contribution). Mining (104 signals) drives +4.6pp of it — excluding Mining entirely, mean alpha across the remaining 212 signals is +0.6% (median -2.5%, hit rate 58%).

Closed signals grouped by composite score at the time of signal. A higher score should, on average, predict a better outcome — the rank correlation between score and alpha is +0.118 (p=0.035, statistically significant), and for return +0.113 (p=0.045, significant). The top score bucket beats the bottom by +3.2pp mean alpha, with 2 bucket-to-bucket inversion(s) along the way — the relationship is positive but noisy, not a clean staircase.

⚠ = tail warning: mean and median alpha diverge sharply for this bucket (small sample, outlier-driven).