How the Signal Score Works
Every number on Form55 is derived from public Canadian government data. Here is exactly how scores are calculated and what the backtest shows.
1,676 signals backtested across TSX & TSXV companies from 2020 to 2025. Return measured over the 90 calendar days following the signal date. Benchmark is the iShares S&P/TSX 60 ETF (XIU.TO) return over the same 90-day window.
| Score Tier | Signals | Signal Avg | TSX 90d | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 – 100 Exceptional | 84 | +8.4% | +4.3% | +4.1% |
| 75 – 89 Strong | 336 | +7.7% | +4.3% | +3.4% |
| 60 – 74 Moderate | 545 | +6.3% | +4.0% | +2.3% |
| 40 – 59 Weak | 608 | +5.9% | +3.7% | +2.3% |
| 20 – 39 Low | 102 | +6.5% | +3.2% | +3.3% |
| Overall | 1,676 | +6.5% | +3.9% | +2.6% |
Methodology: Returns are equal-weighted — each signal counts once regardless of company size. Benchmark (XIU.TO) return is measured over the identical 90-day window as each signal, so macro periods (e.g. 2020 crash, 2022 rate cycle) affect signal and benchmark equally. Delisted companies are included where price data was available at the time; excluded where it was not (disclosed omission, not survivorship bias in the traditional sense). No transaction costs or slippage assumed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not investment advice.
Confluence signals (insider buying + active lobbying in the same 90-day window) are more consistent than pure insider-only signals — but the highest-return outliers tend to come from insider-only names.
| Signal Type | Signals | Avg Return | Hit Rate | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Confluence Insider + Lobbying | 883 | +6.2% | 60% | +3.5% |
| Standard Insider only | 792 | +7.0% | 52% | +1.0% |
Confluence is a consistency filter, not a magnitude amplifier. A 60% hit rate with a +3.5% median means fewer surprises — suitable for systematic positioning. Insider-only signals carry more variance: when they work, they tend to work bigger; when they fail, the drawdown is steeper. The Confluence badge on the leaderboard flags the more reliable cohort.
The single strongest predictor in the model is the number of unique insiders buying. One insider buying alone is far more predictive than a crowd of 20 buying simultaneously. Large-cap, high-volume insider patterns (banks, pipelines) are mostly noise.
| Unique Buyers | Avg 90-Day Return | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +11.3% | Lone insider with conviction — highest signal |
| 2 – 4 | +7.8% | Small cluster, still meaningful |
| 5 – 19 | +4.2% | Diluted signal, possible plan participation |
| 20+ | +2.7% | Likely institutional or DRIP noise |
| Component | Max Points | Logic |
|---|---|---|
| Conviction | 30 | 1 unique buyer = 30 pts · 2–4 = 22 pts · 5–9 = 15 pts · 10–19 = 8 pts · 20+ = 3 pts |
| Buy/Sell Ratio | 20 | Ratio of buy value to sell value × 20. Pure buying = 20 pts. |
| Dollar Value | 25 | $1M–$10M = 25 pts (sweet spot) · $100K–$1M = 20 pts · $10M–$50M = 15 pts · $50M+ = 8 pts · <$100K = 5 pts |
| Lobbying Sweet Spot | 15 | 51–200 active regs = 15 pts (engaged, not ubiquitous) · 11–50 = 12 pts · 1–10 = 10 pts · 200+ = 5 pts (mega-lobbyists are noise) |
| Contract Wins | 10 | $10M+ federal or provincial contracts = 10 pts · $1M+ = 7 pts · 3+ wins = 4 pts · 1+ win = 2 pts |
| Private Placement Conviction | 8 | Credible investors writing cheques in a private placement is pre-public conviction. $1M+ deal = 8 pts · $100K+ = 6 pts · any deal = 4 pts. Sourced from Globe Newswire press releases and SEDI acquisition filings. |
| Insider Track Record | 10 | Credibility score of buying insiders based on their historical trade accuracy. ≥70% credibility = 10 pts · ≥50% = 6 pts · ≥30% = 3 pts |
| Confluence Bonus | 10 | Any three or more of: insider buying, active lobbying, contract wins, private placement in the same 90-day window = 10 pts. Any two = 5 pts. The core thesis: when all signals align, the edge compounds. |
| Velocity & Reversal Bonuses | up to +18 | Velocity: buying accelerating vs prior 90-day window (+10 pts max). Reversal: buying after a prior sell pattern (+8 pts max). Applied as adjustments — not stored as separate DB columns. |
Component totals can exceed 100 before bonuses — the final score is capped at 100. A signal scoring 100 has maxed the conviction, value, and confluence components with velocity or reversal confirmation on top.
SEDI (System for Electronic Disclosure by Insiders)
Canadian Securities Administrators. All TSX & TSXV companies. 113,000+ transactions from 2020 to present.
Office of the Commissioner of Lobbying (OCL)
171,000+ registrations from 1996 to present. Matched to TSX tickers by company name.
Federal procurement databases
1.26M+ federal contracts. 41,300 matched to TSX issuers.
QC, ON, BC, AB, NS open data portals
622,000+ provincial contracts. 8,495 matched to TSX issuers. Paid tier only.
Globe Newswire press releases & SEDI acquisition filings
PP announcements detected via newswire RSS feeds and SEDI transaction code 75 (exempt-market acquisitions). Deal size, price, and warrant coverage extracted where available. Coverage is growing as the parser matures.
Every signal generated since January 2025 is tracked in real time at /track-record — individual named signals with actual TSX entry prices, 90-day exit prices, and benchmark comparison against XIU.TO over the identical window. Returns are verifiable against any TSX data source.
Closed signals (90-day window elapsed) show confirmed returns. No cherry-picking — every signal with score ≥ 40, one per ticker per month. 12 of 661 signals are quarantined for data-quality reasons before any statistic is computed. Headline figures use the tradable-universe weighting (entry price ≥ $1.00); a sizable share of the alpha is concentrated in mining-sector and less-liquid names — see the full methodology & validation breakdown for weighting schemes, sector attribution, and score-bucket statistics.