← Signals · Energy · TSX
$CVE
Cenovus Energy
Signal as of September 24, 2026  ·  90-day rolling window  ·  Integrated Oil & Gas
Confluence Score
73
out of 100  ·  Confluence  ·  Full breakdown →
Score delayed 7 days on Free  ·  See today's score — Analyst →
Signals scoring 60–74 have historically hit 49% of the time (avg +5.2% over 90 days, 1310 backtested signals). Methodology →
🔒 Risk monitoring — insider-selling & reversal warnings (Analyst)
📅 Buying into earnings — Oct 29 (28d)
Confluence Score
73
Insider Activity (90d)
4
3 buyers  ·  $15.8M  ·  open-market only
Current Price
$44.24
CAD  ·  5-min cache
Market Cap
$80.6B
CAD  ·  TMX
Lobbying & Contracts
Active
6 regs  ·  0 contracts
Energy on Form55: 56% hit rate · +2.4% alpha vs XIU.TO · 95 closed signals Track Record →
★
Signal Analyst
The Confluence Score and insider trade feed above are free. Signal Analyst adds the full component breakdown, lobbying registrations, and contract wins — plus alerts when this company's signal moves, so you don't have to keep checking back.
Monitor — CAD $29/mo
Price Chart
12 months daily  ·  TSX:CVE
Insider Transactions
90-day window  ·  11 filings
Date Insider Role Nature Dir. Shares Buy Price Return Value
Sep 16, 2026 KWOK, EVA LEE — Ownership Chg Buy 8,012 — — —
Sep 16, 2026 KWOK, EVA LEE — Ownership Chg Sell 8,012 — — —
Aug 21, 2026 SOINI, JOHN F. — Exercise Buy 26,223 — — —
Aug 21, 2026 SOINI, JOHN F. — Open Market Buy 26,223 $44.92 -1.5%  · 41d $1.2M
Aug 21, 2026 SOINI, JOHN F. — Exercise Sell 26,223 $26.99 — $708K
Aug 21, 2026 SOINI, JOHN F. — Exercise Sell 7,410 $26.99 — $200K
Aug 21, 2026 SOINI, JOHN F. — Exercise Buy 7,410 — — —
Aug 21, 2026 SOINI, JOHN F. — Open Market Buy 7,410 $45.03 -1.7%  · 41d $334K
Aug 17, 2026 Dahlin, Andrew — Open Market Buy 35,877 $44.36 -0.3%  · 45d $1.6M
Aug 14, 2026 McKenzie, Jonathan Michael EVP & CFO Other Sell 104,974 $43.49 — $4.6M
Jul 31, 2026 McKenzie, Jonathan Michael EVP & CFO Open Market Buy 300,000 $42.28 +4.6%  · 62d $12.7M
Score uses open-market buys only  ·  4 open-market  ·  3 plan / compensation shown but not scored  ·  Return is unrealized, to today's price; a “· Nd” mark means the 90-day window is still open (N of 90 days) — too early to judge.
Score Breakdown
Signal Analyst  ·  $29/mo
Component Points Max Detail Weight
Conviction (unique buyers)  ✓ FREE PREVIEW 25 30 3 unique buyers
Buy/sell ratio 20 50% buys (4B / 4S)
Dollar value 25 $15.8M
Lobbying activity 15 6 regs
Contract wins 10 None
Insider track record 10 Avg 22% credibility (limited data)
Private placements 8 None
Confluence bonus 10 Partial confluence (2+ signal sources)
Cluster timing (velocity) 10 No coordinated buying cluster detected
Buy/sell reversal pattern 8 3+ insiders reversed from selling to buying
Total 73 100
Unlock Component Detail — CAD $29/mo
Buying Insiders
Open-market · 90 days · 3 unique buyers
Insider Credibility Hit Rate Avg 90d Return Trades (eval'd) Buy Value (90d) Last Buy
McKenzie, Jonathan Michael
EVP & CFO
59 /100 80% +6.8% 225 $12.7M Jul 31, 2026
Dahlin, Andrew 23 /100 49% +7.9% 59 $1.6M Aug 17, 2026
SOINI, JOHN F. 3 /100 40% +1.2% 5 $1.5M Aug 21, 2026
Credibility score: historical hit rate × avg 90d return × sample size. View full insider leaderboard →
Lobbying Registrations
OCL active  ·  6 registrations
Effective Registrant Subject Matter Institutions Status
May 13, 2026 Cenovus Energy Inc.  ✓ FREE PREVIEW Discussion regarding federal support for employment and training programs related to the industry. |… National Defence (DND); Natural Resources Canada (NRCan); Privy Counci… Active
Active
Active
+ 3 more registrations
Unlock 6 Registrations — CAD $29/mo
Government Contract Wins
90-day window  ·  none found
No government contract wins in the last 90 days. Analyst plan →
Private Placements
12 months  ·  Signal Analyst  ·  $29/mo
Private placement history, deal size, and lock-up expiry tracking. Analyst plan →
Political Footprint
Donations · lobbying · contracts

7 insiders linked to CVE are also individual political donors — $36K across 50 donations (2010–2025).

Conservative Party of Canada · $32K Liberal Party of Canada · $4K

Form55 also tracks CVE's federal footprint: $23K across 2 federal contracts from 2 departments.

Sources: Elections Canada (individual donations only — corporate political donations banned federally since 2007), the federal Registry of Lobbyists, and federal contract disclosures. Insiders matched to donors by name. Shown for transparency from disclosed public records — this is not a Confluence Score input, implies no causal link between donations, lobbying, or contracts, and is not a claim of wrongdoing.

Indigenous Consultation
no records on file

No Indigenous consultation records on file for CVE.

SEDAR+ Filings
official filing registry
Form55 monitors SEDAR+ filing alerts and newswire announcements for Technical Reports and material changes. Search SEDAR+ →
Short Interest
CIRO  ·  Sep 15, 2026
Shares short
10,268,809
Net change
-2,444,779 (-19.2%)
History
Sep 15: 10,268,809
Aug 31: 12,713,588
Aug 15: 11,306,310
Jul 31: 10,895,366
Jul 15: 12,992,568
Jun 30: 11,842,813
Aggregate short position from CIRO's Consolidated Short Position Report (published twice monthly).
Wikipedia Attention
Pageviews  ·  30 days
Views (30d)
4,084
Daily English-Wikipedia pageviews (Wikimedia). Traffic spikes often coincide with news — a public-attention indicator, not investment advice.
Boardroom Connections
10 insiders also active elsewhere
Insider Other boards Also an insider at
Kvisle, Harold N. 2 SOBO (83), ARX (70)
CROTHERS, MICHAEL JOHN 1 KEY (80)
Mongeau, Claude 1 TD (10)
Hart, Jeffrey Ryan 1 NPI (70)
Dabarno, Susan Fay 1 MFC (34)
Walters, Sarah Jane 1 NTR (73)
Lewis, Melville George 1 SOBO (83)
Martineau, Chana Lynn 1 AGI (53)
Daniel, Patrick Darold 1 CM (71)
Li, Ka-shing (name match?) 1 NXE (66)
People who file as insiders here and at other TSX/TSXV companies (number in brackets = that company's Confluence Score). A well-connected insider taking a seat at a new junior can be an early tell. Matched by name across SEDI filings; funds and 10%+ holders excluded.
Government Grants & Funding
6 federal awards  ·  $7.0M total
Program / Agreement Department Amount Start
Green Industrial Facilities and Manufacturing Program Contribution Natural Resources Canada $1.8M Mar 2025
Clean Fuels Program Contribution Natural Resources Canada $1.7M Dec 2023
Clean Fuels Program Contribution Natural Resources Canada $1.1M Dec 2023
Clean Fuels Program Contribution Natural Resources Canada $386K Dec 2023
Energy Innovation Program Contribution Natural Resources Canada $1.6M Feb 2023
Contributions for Growing Canada's Forests to 2 Billion Trees Contribution Natural Resources Canada $401K Jul 2021
Federal grants & contributions disclosed by the Government of Canada (Proactive Disclosure), matched to this issuer by legal name. Government funding can be a pre-revenue validation and capital signal. Display-only context, not a Confluence Score input.
Form55 provides data and analysis for informational purposes only. Nothing on this site constitutes investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.